Wine World

Scarcity plays an important role--perhaps the most important role--in determining the intrinsic value of luxury goods. Would platinum gleam as brightly if it were as common as steel? I've often thought that garlic would be more expensive than truffles if it were as scarce. Perhaps it's just the thought of Frenchmen and pigs combing oak forests in search of a bulb of garlic that makes this mental image so entertaining: "Pierre, va chercher le cochon; la saison de l'ail a commence!" (Pierre, fetch the pig; it's garlic season.)

It is against this background that I marvel at Bordeaux. In the world of wine, precious few wines sell for more than the top wines of Bordeaux-small production Burgundies and some rare German wines, not much more. Names like Lafite, Latour and Mouton command some of the highest prices ever paid for wines upon release and grace the wine lists of virtually every top restaurant. Against that backdrop, one might reasonably assume that these wines are incredibly scarce. Oddly enough, at least when compared with other wines of similar caliber, they are not.

Granted, certain Pomerols as well as some garagiste producers are truly small-production wines. However, they are the exception rather than the rule. First growths such as Lafite and Latour produce 15,000 to 20,000 cases of their top wines in a typical vintage; Mouton as much as 25,000 cases. In a recent article in Decanter, Jean-Guillaume Prats was proud that Cos d'Estournel, a highly regarded second growth from St. Estèphe, had reduced the production of its top wine to 15,000 cases from historic levels closer to 40,000 cases.

It is difficult to consider a half-million bottles of anything, even a wine as fine as 1982 Cos d'Estournel, as rare. By comparison, Shafer produces only 2,000 cases of its Hillside Select in any given year; Harlan closer to 1,500. There are those for whom California cabernet is no substitute for a fine Bordeaux, and I do not aim to question matters of taste. However, at least when using wine critics as a yardstick, it is clear that Shafer and Harlan have reputations the equal of the top wines of Bordeaux. The ability of the Bordelais to create a worldwide demand that maintains stratospheric release prices for wines that are relatively plentiful is nothing short of remarkable.

One mechanism utilized to create scarcity is the pre-sale of Bordeaux wines as "futures." Each summer, a small amount of a chateau's production is sold approximately two years before the wine is bottled and released. Subsequent pre-sales, called "tranches," are then offered, usually with price adjustments based upon the performance of the first tranche.

Historically, purchasing the top chateaux's futures from an excellent vintage has been a sound investment. In return for paying for the wine in advance, the purchaser is insulated from currency fluctuations and price increases. Early purchasers who locked in the 2003 vintage of Château Latour for around $400 a bottle fared well. Having received a perfect 100-point score from Robert Parker's The Wine Advocate, it currently sells for just less than $700 a bottle.

With the 2005 vintage, the investment potential of futures seems to have been erased. Tasted out of barrel, the 2005 Latour has received early reviews between 98 and 100 points-potentially another perfect wine. However, as futures, it is offered in the United States at an eye-opening $800 per bottle. Latour is not alone in its remarkable pricing leap; Mouton futures are selling at $600 a bottle, and Ausone is offered at $1,250. On average, Bordeaux futures are up more than 40 percent from previous high-water vintages such as 2000 and 2003.

It is difficult to foresee an upside to futures at these prices. If they hold, and indications are that they will, then prices for other exemplary Bordeaux will rise as well. In 2003, Lafite, Latour and Ausone all received perfect scores from The Wine Advocate, and each currently retails for less than the 2005 futures from those chateaux. In 2000, eight chateaux achieved perfection, including Lafite, Margaux and La Mission Haut-Brion. Although they are certainly expensive, the 2000 and 2003 vintages from Bordeaux now appear undervalued, as do certain dessert wines from Sauternes in 2001. These wines are available now and will be mature for drinking years ahead of the 2005s-a rosy future indeed.

Lagniappe: One compelling reason exists for the purchase of futures in 2005, or indeed in any year. When ordering futures, the purchaser can often specify the bottle format-such as a 4.5-liter jeroboam or a six-liter Imperial-for a nominal premium over the equivalent number of regular bottles. If 2005 marked a special event, such as a wedding or the birth of a child, a "big bottle" from the vintage would be a wonderful reminder and could serve as the centerpiece for a future anniversary or birthday celebration. Due to somewhat archaic alcoholic beverage laws in Florida that define allowable bottle sizes, collectors desiring bottle formats larger than three liters may need to work through an out-of-state retailer.

John Vega is a practicing attorney in Naples and a renowned wine connoisseur.